Analysts Say Altria Group (MO) May Be Up to 50% Undervalued Amid Divergent Valuations

Shares of Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO), the Richmond, Virginia-based tobacco company, are the subject of renewed debate among investors and analysts, as several recent intrinsic value calculations suggest that the stock may be significantly undervalued—by as much as 50% or more. Altria’s shares were last quoted at $59.30 as of Thursday, May 22, with a marginal decline of $0.16 from the previous close. The day’s trading saw the stock open at $59.40, hit a high of $59.58, a low of $58.75, and a trading volume of 5,786,722 shares by 20:49:38 UTC.

According to an analysis published by Yahoo Finance, a two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates Altria’s intrinsic value at $119 per share. This model incorporates projected free cash flows in an initial growth phase followed by a period of moderated growth, discounting these cash flows to their present value. Using a levered beta to reflect the company’s volatility, this approach yields an intrinsic value roughly double the current share price, implying a potential undervaluation of 50%.

The DCF methodology has also been applied by other analysts and valuation sites, generating a wide range of estimates. For example:

A valuesense.io discounted cash flow analysis from April 2025 valued Altria at $136.00 per share, suggesting a 133.9% undervaluation versus then-prevailing market prices.
On May 4, 2025, valueinvesting.io’s DCF model calculated an intrinsic value of $94.96, indicating a 59.3% upside compared to the $59.61 share price at that time.
Valuesense.io also reported a February 25, 2025 valuation of $86.30 per share, a 53.9% discount to that day’s price of $56.10.
Webull.com in November 2023 estimated Altria’s fair value at $80.16 per share, reflecting a 49% undervaluation versus the then-current price of $40.82.
A March 2024 report placed fair value at $74.10, a 42% premium to the share price at the time.
Conversely, a May 2025 assessment from gurufocus.com calculated a fair value of $47.14—slightly below current levels, suggesting the stock is modestly overvalued.
Other models, such as a dividend-based DCF by gurufocus.com as of May 10, 2025, put intrinsic value at $63.27 per share, while a projected free cash flow DCF from March 17, 2025, estimated $44.62 per share against a price of $58.90, yielding a price-to-intrinsic-value ratio of 1.3.

These varying figures are the result of differing forecast assumptions, growth rate expectations, and discount rate choices commonly used in DCF and other intrinsic value models.

The Yahoo Finance analysis notes strong recent growth for Altria, exceeding the industry average. The company’s substantial and well-covered dividend makes it an important equity income stock in U.S. markets. However, there are notable risks: liabilities that exceed reported assets increase the company’s financial risk profile, and many analysts forecast a decline in Altria’s future earnings.

While DCF models offer helpful benchmarks, financial experts recommend using intrinsic value estimates as just one component within a broader toolkit for investment research. Other factors—including sensitivity of models to inputs, industry trends, macroeconomic shifts, and comparison with sector peers such as Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco—should also inform investment decisions.

As valuations and market conditions evolve, investors are urged to use interactive tools and review the latest financial disclosures, bearing in mind that all intrinsic value calculations are subject to limitation based on forecasting uncertainty. These analyses do not constitute specific investment advice or recommendations regarding Altria stock.