EQT Corporation, the United States' largest producer of natural gas, has experienced considerable momentum in its stock price, rising 8.7% in the past week and a notable 42.2% over the last year. The rally comes amid strategic developments in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector and positive movements within regulatory and export environments, which have intensified both market enthusiasm and debate over the company's future growth prospects and risks.
According to a recent analysis, EQT's surge is underpinned by expanded LNG export approvals and industry optimism surrounding natural gas. Traditional valuation frameworks give EQT a strong score of 5 out of 6 for being undervalued, yet classic methods only provide part of the picture. Utilizing a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model, which estimates intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to their present value, analysts have based calculations on a baseline of approximately $4.1 billion. Projections suggest this figure could rise to $5.7 billion by 2027, indicating steady, though slowing, growth. Based on consensus for the initial five years—with later years extrapolated—the DCF model pegs EQT’s intrinsic fair value at $55.77 per share, implying that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its underlying potential.
The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 16.1, noticeably higher than both the industry sector average of 10.7 and the peer group average of 13.4. While this could suggest EQT shares are expensive relative to rivals, the broader investment narrative and the company’s unique market position point to a more nuanced interpretation. The proprietary Fair Multiple metric, which considers expected earnings growth, risk profile, profit quality, and industry context, aligns closely with the P/E multiple at 16.3. This suggests EQT’s current trading price matches what would be considered fair given its risk and growth profile.
EQT’s optimism is further fueled by its long-term commitment to LNG exports. In August 2025, EQT finalized a 20-year agreement with Sempra Infrastructure to purchase two million tonnes per annum of LNG from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas, using pricing based on the Henry Hub natural gas index. This agreement is set to enhance the export capacity of Appalachian gas, broadening EQT’s global reach (details here).
Additionally, EQT entered a separate 20-year Sale and Purchase Agreement with Commonwealth LNG, securing 1.0 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at a facility in development near Cameron, Louisiana. This arrangement grants EQT marketing and optimization opportunities for LNG exports internationally (see details). These two strategic moves are seen as positioning EQT to capitalize on growing global demand for LNG and underpin recent stock performance.
The company’s stock, listed on the U.S. market, last traded at $59.90 as of the closing session on Friday, November 14, 16:57:03 PST, reflecting a marginal dip of $0.35 (-0.01%) from the previous close. Intraday figures revealed a session open at $59.05, with a high of $60.86, a low of $57.95, and a trading volume of 10,974,905 shares.
Analyst and investor perspectives diverge on EQT’s outlook. Some forecast that the company’s involvement in LNG as well as anticipated data center demand could elevate fair value estimates towards $70 per share. Others, concerned about regulatory risk and natural gas price volatility, assign valuations closer to $45. While discounted cash flow analysis suggests undervaluation, the prevailing narrative remains largely optimistic as the company pursues increased export capacity and regulatory developments favor continued growth.
As with all investment decisions, observers caution that while valuation models and historical data provide useful context, individual assessments should also account for broader industry developments and company-specific risks. Those considering investments in EQT or similar energy equities should seek further research and independent financial advice.
For further details and the original report, see Yahoo Finance.